Mythili Bhusnurmath stocks: Theres cause for a pause but market consensus is a 25 bps rate hike: Mythili Bhusnurmath The Economic Times

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We will have to wait and see what the RBI governor decides, because ultimately despite the MPC, it’s the governor’s call. That is exactly what the RBI has said, but things may not be as simple as that. For instance, even before the RBI MPC meet, the trade bodies like CII and the FICCI had been urging the RBI governor to go slow on rate hikes. Firstly, it had led to a sharp fall in the net profit margins of the Indian companies. In addition, the interest coverage ratio and the debt coverage ratio were also deteriorating. That is a solvency issue and it could have larger repercussion on the rating of Indian companies.

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Our research team is composed of some highly qualified research professionals, their expertise range across sectors. “The Bank Nifty index ahead of the RBI policy continued its strong momentum and ended on a high note. The index next hurdle on the upside stands at the 41,500-41,600 zone which can act as a profit-booking zone for the short term. The index, however, surpassing those levels on a closing basis, can extend the rally towards 42,000/42,500 levels. The lower-end support is visible at the 40,600-40,500 zone, which will cushion the bulls,” said Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities. Stocks in Asia-Pacific traded mixed as Japan’s Nikkei 225 tanked 1.11% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 0.18%.

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This is the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the new fiscal. The Reserve Bank of India on Thursday hit the pause button and decided to keep the key benchmark policy rate at 6.5 per cent even as inflation is trending above its tolerance level. The rate hike has been paused after six consecutive rate increases aggregating to 250 basis points since May 2022.

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Mythili Bhusnurmath, Consulting Editor, ET Now, says that it is going to be a tough call. This looks like good reactionary approach but the RBI also realizes that the need of the hour is not just to react but to pre-empt. While it is true that the rates would eventually be data driven, the above statement does not really give confidence to the markets about what the RBI and the government proposes to do. Of course, it is true that if inflation becomes too much of a problem then the RBI may again turn hawkish.

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The near term upside targets for the Nifty is around and next levels for the next one week. Immediate support is placed at levels,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Technical Research Analyst, HDFC Securities. German engineering major Siemens is recording perhaps its best growth ever in India. The oldest multinational corporation in the country has been aggressively bidding for, and winning, contracts across segments, the latest being one for ₹26,000 crore from the Indian Railways. Minh Phu Seafood Corp. engages in the processing and exporting of seafood products.

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Since May last year, the https://1investing.in/ bank has increased the rate by 250 bps over inflation concerns. RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Thursday said the repo rate has been kept unchanged on basis of macroeconomic and financial conditions. It said the RBI would raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points and then pause for the rest of the year. Economists at Goldman Sachs expect the RBI to raise rates by 25 bps to take the repo rate to 6.75 per cent. “With considerable uncertainty around the commodity prices path and global growth, the RBI is likely to retain the tightening policy stance,” it said.

For the RBI, the pause was an experiment but also a mid-way compromise between the demands of macroeconomics and the demands of the industry. The pause may not be the end of the rate hike, but the RBI would surely need a very strong base case to get hawkish all over again. The RBI MPC meeting will conclude on Thursday, following which, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce if there is a change in the regulatory body’s stance as well as the repo rate.

By using this site, you are agreeing to security monitoring and auditing. To allow for equitable access to all users, SEC reserves the right to limit requests originating from undeclared automated tools. Your request has been identified as part of a network of automated tools outside of the acceptable policy and will be managed until action is taken to declare your traffic. “The present sharp upside bounce is likely to negate the bearish chart pattern of lower tops and bottoms on the daily chart . The overall chart pattern is getting stronger as per smaller and longer term charts like daily and weekly. The short term trend of Nifty continues to be positive and we expect this upside momentum to continue in the coming sessions.

Will oil and rain pour over the RBI MPC decision?

In the aftermath of the COVID, India did achieve that quite effectively. However, today when the RBI is trying to curtail inflation, that is not supported with a rapid fall in the fiscal deficit. Such a coordinated action would have actually helped the monetary policy to be more effective. In that situation, I would expect inflation to decline below 5.5% and the projections would be that it would fall even further. The real interest rate would then rise well above the 1% level that is perhaps needed to glide inflation towards the target of 4%. The MPC would then need to deliberate hard about the appropriateness of the growth sacrifice implicit in such a high real interest rate.

  • For example, all the six members of the MPC have admitted that while inflation has come down, the progress till date was far from satisfactory.
  • “Now, rains and hail have flattened the crop. It’s a double whammy for us,” Ramandeep Singh Mann, a farmer in Punjab, told PTI.
  • It said the RBI would raise its main interest rate by 25 basis points and then pause for the rest of the year.
  • “Overall inflation is above target, and monetary policy can still be regarded as accommodative as per current rates,” he added.

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Since then, it has either been downhill or an upmove has tapered off in three days. I think the stance should be one of heightened alertness in the face of emerging inflationary risks. Inflation or at least projected inflation would have to fall much closer to the target for the MPC to have the headroom to act against a growth slowdown. Barring Axis Bank and Federal Bank, all other stocks in the Nifty Bank basket were in the green. Stocks such as PNB, and Bank of Baroda were each up 1 per cent, followed by IDFC First Bank, IndusInd Bank and Bandhan Bank each up between 0.5-1 per cent intraday today after RBI surprised the Street.

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Besides what will be the RBI’s seventh consecutive rate hike as it battles to tame inflation, investors will also watch for commentary on the central bank’s policy stance and future hikes. In the Indian context, that accounts for a small part of the consumer basket. One could argue equally for a pause, particularly since growth is expected to slow down, as we have seen from the World Bank estimate of growth for India in this fiscal.

Just write the bank account number and sign in the application form to authorise your bank to make payment in case of allotment. Liquidity management is outside the remit of the MPC partly because, under ideal conditions, liquidity is orthogonal to monetary policy per se. Providing liquidity at or above the repo rate does not in principle impede monetary transmission. The outlook is adverse for summers when weather experts expect abnormally high temperatures.

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China’s Shanghai Composite traded flat, lower by 0.02% while the Shenzhen Component lost 0.03%. A combination of HDFC twins and index heavyweights ensured the Nifty 50 index gained for the fourth day in a row on Wednesday. The index has now gained over 600 points during the last four trading sessions. The wheat crop looked promising until early March when the weather became unfavourably hot. “Now, rains and hail have flattened the crop. It’s a double whammy for us,” Ramandeep Singh Mann, a farmer in Punjab, told PTI. Some experts believe the unseasonal rains could just affect the quality of the crop instead of bringing down the output.

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Speaking about global factors, RBI Governor Das said that the global economy facing a renewed phase of turbulence. “We are witnessing unprecedented uncertainties in geopolitics and economy. Bank failures and contagion risks are forcing central banks to take additional notice,” Das said on Thursday. U.S. stocks lost ground on Wednesday and Treasury yields extended their decline as a batch of data fueled worries that restrictive central bank policies could push the global economy into recession. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 lost 0.25% and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.07%.

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Secondly, India had erratic monsoons in the last couple of years and that has given rise to bouts of food inflation. None of the MPC members are really confident about flat or lower rates in the foreseeable future. The first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the new fiscal year is expected to be a tough call as inflation, growth and financial stability have to be balanced. The broad market view seems to be in favor of a 25 bps hike in interest rates as inflation is still very high in India. However, two of the three external members of the committee are in favour of a pause.

  • On the contrary, Nifty Consumer Durables recovered from its lows to trade around 0.3 per cent lower after the monetary policy verdict.
  • The oldest multinational corporation in the country has been aggressively bidding for, and winning, contracts across segments, the latest being one for ₹26,000 crore from the Indian Railways.
  • These were already beginning to manifest in various forms, which is why the RBI was worried.
  • The index next hurdle on the upside stands at the 41,500-41,600 zone which can act as a profit-booking zone for the short term.

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“The RBI’s pause is like Sachin’s stroke on a tricky pitch but with eyes set in and having the luxury of hitting the ball wherever he wanted. The market expects the RBI to fetch maximum run and win the match on inflation and growth, no matter which direction they hit the ball,” said Nilesh Shah, MD, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company. The RBI Governor further added that the repo rate has been hiked by 250 bps in the last 11 months, though the effective rate hike, has been 290 bps. Of the total 36 respondents, 20 expected the central bank to continue its ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance, while the remaining 16 predict a shift towards a neutral stance. However, one thing comes out pretty clearly from the MPC discussion as captured in the minutes.

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